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Demo Roundup PART II
Census 2000 focused our attention on enumerating our population but life is more than just a head count. Here are some numbers beyond the basic "how many" that suggest some trends that may have a lot more to do with the way we live now, and in the next few years.
 
 
TRAD. JOB OPS. RARE 

Work isn't work the way it used to be. In California, the trendsetter in so many things work related, only one-third of workers have "traditional jobs" -- defined as single, permanent full-time day-shift work paid for by an employer at the employer's site. And only 22 percent have been doing this type of work for more than three years. What are the rest of the workers up to? About 12 percent hold more than one job and about 33 percent work more than 45 hours per week. 

Most California workers are moving on up -- 40 percent have been in their current position for three years or less; in the past year 59 percent have received a raise. But it's not a rosy picture for everyone -- 20 percent of workers have been laid off in the past three years. 

Economists are watching the California situation carefully -- it's the heart of the New Economy, and trends there can be harbingers of things to come for the rest of the country. 

BLESS OUR HOUSE(S) 

Two homes are better than one? The roaring economy has led to a housing boom -- more than 60 percent of households are homeowners-- an all-time high. But there's another housing boom going on as well -- 13 percent of home sales in 1999 were for second homes, an increase of five percentage points from 1996. 

Second homes are being bought by mid- and late-career baby boomers who are looking forward to retirement. The homes are most likely to be in seaside or mountain areas such as Honolulu, Hawaii; Big Bear Lake, California; Captiva, Florida and Lake Tahoe, Nevada/ California -- good places to retire. The median price of a second home in 1999 was $92,000, an increase of 19 percent from 1996. 
About one-third of second homes (38 percent) were bought without a mortgage, meaning that purchasers paid cash -- that's unusual for first home purchases, but not an impossibility for well-heeled, older boomers

who have decided to have a mortgage-free retirement. There may be a housing glut in a couple of years as these boomers make their "home away from home" their only home. 

ANOTHER YEAR OLDER AND DEEPER IN DEBT 

Household debt grows. While some wealthy pre-retirement boomers are paying cash for their second houses the rest of the nation is up to its ears in debt. You can use your credit card for just about anything these days -- to pay for groceries, to pay your utility bill, to pay your phone bill -- even to pay your income taxes. And Americans are doing just that. According to the Federal Reserve, household borrowing has risen almost 60 percent over the past five years, to $6.5 trillion. While some may wonder what all the concern is about -- after all, available credit, like so many other things, is considered a symbol of having arrived -- "if you got it, flaunt it!" But what is happening is that people in the weakest credit position tend to carry the biggest burden of debt, at least percentage-wise. If the economy crashes, they will crash big time. And that could be a problem, in an unnerving, domino-effect sort of way. 

In the current environment, people with bad credit histories and those with low incomes -- people who used to find it hard to borrow money -- are finding it easier than ever to get plastic or even a mortgage. And those with moderate incomes are potentially risking their futures by taking advantage of an easy second mortgage or home equity loan atmosphere. But optimists feel that the US is a safe place in which to be in debt -- we are borrowing more money because there is more money to borrow. And as long as the balance remains tipped in favor of the borrower, the plastic revolution will continue. 


 
 
 

 
 
"Anyone can look 
for fashion in a 
boutique or history 
in a museum. 
The creative 
explorer looks 
for history in a 
hardware store 
and fashion in an 
airport." 

Robert Wieder, 
Author and stand up comic


 

 


 

 

 


By Laurie Tema-Lyn of Practical Imagination Enterprises, Reva Dolobowsky of Dolobowsky Qualitative Services & Marcia Mogelonsky of Mintel International Group © 2001, Dolobowsky, Tema-Lyn & Mogelonsky
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